2009

SUnknownWhy Every NATO Member Joined and Why Everyone Else Hasn't

Wed, Jul 20, 2022

Since NATO's founding joining the organization has not been an easy proposition. It requires a unanimous vote of the growing list of members and several qualifications that can be tough to meet. Yet, it has grown to over thirty members including every county that qualifies.

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SUnknownTen Reasons Why Ukraine Hasn't Destroyed the Crimean Bridge

Tue, Sep 13, 2022

Warfare is not just about combat. It's also about politics. And the political advantages of maintaining the Crimean Bridge may outweigh the military disadvantages.

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SUnknownThe Three Reasons the Russia-Ukraine War Hasn't Ended

Thu, Oct 20, 2022

Professor Spaniel presents the thesis that the Russia Ukraine conflict will end when both sides feel they have achieved their best possible outcome. He further shares what the combatants may believe from three perspectives.

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SUnknownHow Ukraine Forced Russia's Retreat in Kherson

Wed, Nov 09, 2022

Ukraine's battle plan to retake Kherson began with a feint, ironically on Kherson itself.

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SUnknownThe Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic about Crimea

Wed, Nov 30, 2022

Of paramount importance to Russia is the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea. If Russia is having difficulty maintaining the Crimean region via a single bridge and a ferry service, that could explain Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine giving it a land bridge to Crimea. If Ukraine retakes the seized territory, Russia may face an uprising of dissatisfied citizens in Crimea.

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SUnknownRussia Just Took a Big Dam Risk. Is Moscow Running out of Soldiers?

Tue, Feb 28, 2023

Just as Ukraine opened the sluice gates of the Dnieper dam to widen the Dnieper river and slow the Russian advance, Russia is using the same tactic. But why now (March 2023). Is this a play in a broader plan?

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SUnknownWhy China Isn't Helping Russia: A Tale of Sovereignty, Geopolitical Jockeying, and Money

Wed, Apr 12, 2023

China's support for Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine seems taciturn at first glance. Sometimes China supports Russia. Sometimes it doesn't. But each decision is likely carefully calculated to be in China's best interest which goes well behind public appearances.

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SUnknownDam Consequences: How Nova Kakhovka's Breach Will Transform Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Mon, Jun 05, 2023

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam provides Russian with some military relief but it introduces some serious habitability issues that cannot be resolved quickly or easily.

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SUnknownThe Causes of the Crisis between Hamas and Israel

Wed, Oct 11, 2023

Political scientists have a model that, in general terms, explains the causes of war between nations. Professor Spaniel contends it is far too soon to understand why Hamas chose to attack Isreal in October 2023. But a look at the various players shows the dynamics involved.

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SUnknownWhat Gazans Think of Hamas and How It Shaped the Crisis with Israel

Thu, Nov 02, 2023

Coincidentally, the week before the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel an organization called Arab Barometer surveyed Gazans on how they felt about Hamas. About seventy-five percent disapproved of Hamas. But that leaves open the questions; Was the attack an effort by Hamas to regain pubic support? And has Hamas's become more or less popular since the attack and Israel's response.

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SUnknownWhat Is Israel's Endgame in Gaza? A Tale of Lawn Mowers, Peacekeepers, and DMZs

Mon, Nov 06, 2023

There is not an obvious and simple end game for Israels invasion of Gaza. But here are the prospects.

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SUnknownThe Truth about Oil Wars and the Venezuela-Guyana Crisis

Mon, Dec 25, 2023

Nicolas Maduro threat to invade Guyana may have more to do with his abysmal popularity heading into the next election than the desire to seize Guyana's oil reserves. And then there's the economic sanctions.

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SUnknownThe Four Great Ironies of the United States' TikTok Ban*

Sun, Mar 17, 2024

Since China bans the Chinese application TikTok; why is China upset that the United States is considering doing the same. And it gets stranger.

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SUnknownThe Blame Game Begins: The Moscow Theater Attack and Mobilizing against Ukraine

Tue, Mar 26, 2024

A look at the subtle political implications and posturing involved in the United States warning of an attack on groups of Russian civilians prior to the March 24 Moscow concert hall attack.

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