2010

SUnknownMapping the rise of Turkey's military reach

Sat, Jan 09, 2010

The Arab Spring forced Turkey to drop its subtle behind the scenes diplomacy for a more aggressive posture. In the decade following it became a potent regional political and military power and an important arms developer, producer and exporter.

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SUnknownPre-Islamic history of the Middle East

Tue, Aug 28, 2012

Here is the political history of the Middle East - the ebb and flow of kingdoms from the first until the Islamic empire. Ibn-Khaldun described this period as repeated cycles of conquest, consolidation, expansion, degeneration and reconquest.

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SUnknownCanada wants 100 million people by 2100

Sat, Dec 14, 2019

Considering its land mass Canada is seriously under populated. As a result its geopolitical and economic influence is limited. Initiatives it increase Canada's population to one hundred million people by the end to the twenty first century have come and gone. But the melting Arctic Ocean and the resultant economic opportunities and challenges have moved it back into the forefront of domestic politics.

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SUnknown2020 Forecast: Europe

Mon, Jan 20, 2020

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SUnknownDutch proposal to dam the North Sea

Sun, Feb 23, 2020

Expectations are that sea level rise will inundate large tracts of coastal communities in northern Europe within the next few decades. A potential method to mitigate the damage is to build mega dams between Scotland and Norway and between England and France. While the cost of this project is daunting it is less costly than the alternative of abandoning the coastal areas.

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SUnknownThe Pentagon predicts its own collapse

Mon, Mar 16, 2020

General Mark Miley reported that the US Millitary is concerned about and planning for climate change. The military anticipates climate induced disruption of operations occurring simultaneously with international crises. Admiral William Francis Moran testified that naval bases by necessity are built along sea coasts making them vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise.

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SUnknownEurope's plan to checkmate Russia

Mon, Mar 23, 2020

Appalled by the prospect of hegemony by a reinvigorated Russia, twelve nations in Central Europe are forging an alliance reminiscent of the Intermarium. They are considering a plethora of infrastructure mega projects to foster international trade between the group and reducing reliance on Russia. The United States and German have offered to bankroll much of the effort. Of course Russia and other countries that fear the effects of the relationship are posing resistance.

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SUnknownThe Art of Geopolitics, Part 1: Introduction

Fri, May 08, 2020

Geopolitics is the global mechanism of deciding who has access to what resources and who decides. The founding student of geopolitics, Halford Mackinder, defined the Post-Columbian epoch following the period of European colonization noting that the entire world is now nationalized. So one nation's gain involves another's loss and will likely result in conflict.

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SUnknownPortugal plans to double its territory

Sat, May 09, 2020

During the European recessions in the early twenty-first century Portugal was forced by the European Union to impose austerity measures on its economy. This wake-up call lead Portugal to prepare the Mar Portugal Plan to regain more autonomy. Under the plan Portugal will claim its 'extended continental shelf' as its exclusive economic zone as is its right under international law. The claim will extend Portugal from the Iberian peninsula to the Mid-Atlantic rift making it one of the largest countries in the world, 97 percent of it ocean.

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SUnknownWill the Middle East go nuclear?

Thu, May 14, 2020

A nuclear armed Middle East is a looming nightmare. The temptation to become a nuclear armed nation in the region is high as such a nation could exercise a much more belligerent foreign policy. Fortunately, becoming a nuclear armed nation is not easy. It is costly, it risks economic retaliation and isolation and Isreal will go to great lengths to prevent it. And it is not an advantage that will last for long as other nations will acquire the same capability as rapidly as possible,

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SUnknownNew Zealand at the centre of big power play

Mon, Aug 03, 2020

Besides the two Aukland Islands New Zealand is comprised of numerous far flung islands that give the country the ninth largest maritime zone in the world. Seafloor mapping over the past ten years has uncovered that it also has a much larger continental shelf than was previously known. This discovery may have political importance as Austrlia, New Zealand, France and the United states strive to contain China's ambitions in the western Pacific.

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SUnknownKosovo triggers a domino effect in the Balkans

Tue, Aug 18, 2020

The stalemate over Kosovo independence with Serbia softened in 2018 with the proposal of a land swap that would return a largely Serbian region of Kosovo to Serbia in exchange for a region largely populated by Albanians. This raised alarm bells with those familiar with the Balkans because their are many separatists movement and ethnic enclaves that could rise to the occasion with their own demands.

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SUnknownMercenaries are reshaping the battlefield

Tue, Oct 06, 2020

Mercenary armies such as the French Foreign Legion have a long history. But they came to the fore during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq where some fifty percent of military personnel were private contracts and fifteen per cent of them were active combatants. Today (year 2020) large combat units are openly used by many countries such as Iran and Turkey as well as the super powers. Here's why and where they are deployed.

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SUnknownWhy Armenia and Azerbaijan Are at War

Sun, Oct 25, 2020

Following the breakup of the Soviet union the odd distribution of the Serb and Ajeri people in the Nagorno-Karabakh region lead to territorial disputes and Serbia invaded and took possession of the region driving out 750,000 Ajeri. There is a framework for a treaty that would return thinks to 'normal'. But after 27 years no agreement has been reached and Serbia was acting to annex the region. By 2020 Serbia had managed to offend the local superpowers, Russia, Iran and Turkey so Ajerbajan has undertaken military action to retake the territory.

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SUnknownWhy Arab-Israeli ties are normalizing

Thu, Dec 17, 2020

In Arab countries public opinion is firmly against reconciliation with Israel yet animosity between Isreal and several Arab governments, notably Saudi Arabia, is easing. There are three major factors at play. Saudi Arabia's rival, Iran, has become more active on the international stage. Multilateral relationships and Pan-Arabism have faded in favor or bilateral relations. Two new mega projects important to Sudi Arabia involve Isreal; the Tracks for Regional Peace railway project and the new city of NEOM.

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SUnknownA new scramble for Africa

Tue, Feb 16, 2021

The Eurpean Union is by far Africa's largest training partner. Bilateral trade between the two regions continues to increase with the construction and expansion of transportation hubs along the North African trade corridors and the manufacturing base throughout the continent. The growth has not gone without notice and Asian superpowers are also expanding their economic relationships with Africa.

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SUnknownWarfare is Going Autonomous and Robotic

Sat, Mar 06, 2021

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SUnknownChina could invade Taiwan by 2027

Fri, Apr 02, 2021

The People's Republic of China desperately wants control of Taiwan. But the Hong Kong protests and other incidents have made Taiwan even more independent minded. So the Chinese Communists are turning aggressive. Beijing is probably incapable of an extremely risky and bloody amphibious invasion of Taiwan. So it has engaged in psychological warfare to make Taiwan feel isolated.

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SUnknownUkraine and Russia Preparing for a New War

Thu, Apr 22, 2021

Centered in the European Plain Ukraine is a desirable region to control as a buffer to foreign invasion. Its position divides the country politically with the west leaning to the West and the east leaning toward Russia to the point of being separatist. In April 2021 a new round of military mobilization is underway near the Dombas region in Russia. With the popularity of both the Russian and Ukrainean leaders at an all time low here are Putin's options.

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SUnknownThe making of an Asian NATO

Thu, Apr 29, 2021

The 2004 Tsunami brought together an improvised coalition of Australia, India, Japan and the United States to provide humanitarian aid. This prompted Shinzo Abe, prime minister of Japan, to propose the Quadrilateral Security Dialog but it quickly fell apart. But in response to China's more aggressive corrosion it has be re-invigorated with the goal of containing China.

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SUnknownWhy Israel and Palestine are fighting

Fri, May 14, 2021

Was the flare up in the conflict between Isreal and Hamas during Ramadan 2021 a spontaneous reaction to a pilgrimage getting out of control? More likely it was a deliberate action by Hamas to appear strong on the eve of up coming Palestinian elections when it hopes to wrest control of the West Bank form Fatah.

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SUnknownSpain makes grand plans for Africa

Thu, Jun 03, 2021

Since the end of its days as a major empire Spain has been politically insular participating only reluctantly in NATO and the EU. In a radical change Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced a policy of engagement with Africa since it is already intertwined with Africa's prospects. In particular the policy invites African students to study in Spanish Universities, encourages Spanish companies to establish offices and factories in Africa, funding to support infrastructure projects and even military protection of trade routes to fight piracy.

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SUnknownWhat would happen if Russia collapsed?

Sat, Jun 19, 2021

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SUnknownCentral Asia on the verge of a water war

Tue, Jul 13, 2021

When central Asia belonged to the Soviet Union convoluted borders were created to deliberately induce resource disputes that could only be settled by Moscow. Post Soviet Union the borders are still in place and still lead to conflicts as the countries exert their Independence. And still, as mediator, Moscow exerts control.

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SUnknownWhy Russia wants to restore the Soviet borders

Mon, Jul 19, 2021

Moscow has used vast tracks territory as security for centuries. Even today it's vast western territories surrounded by geographic barriers give it secure northern, eastern and southwestern boarders. But in the east the European plane is wide open to potential invaders as is the Central Asian steppe. The Soviet Union was much easier to defend when it controlled these areas. So Russian is seeking to bring them back under its control.

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SUnknownAlgeria & Morocco: the world's most self-destructive rivalry

Mon, Sep 13, 2021

The emergence of Morocco and Algeria from colonial French and Spanish control over fifty years ago lead to extreme tension between the two countries that continues to today (2021). Initiated by border and territorial disputes Morrocco turned to the United States and Algeria to the Soviet Union and began an arms race that neither can afford.

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SUnknownIndia's masterplan to counter China

Tue, Sep 21, 2021

China's Belt and Road Initiative is not just providing economic expansion, for China. China is also using it to isolate and encircle India. India, of course is not sitting still for this situation. It is working to use China's own strategy to expand international relations and commerce. The four new corridors described here look very good on paper but are proving to be challenging.

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SUnknownWhy China Cannot Abandon Communism

Mon, Oct 18, 2021

If coastal China was a country it would be one of the wealthiest and advanced countries in the world. But China also retains a vast interior as a strategic military buffer that is poor and undeveloped. And that is where communism comes into play. The autocratic Chinese Communist Party has sufficient authority to redistribute wealth to the interior to maintain a decent standard of living there.

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SUnknownBosnia in danger of breaking up

Thu, Nov 11, 2021

The Dayton Accords established peace in Bosnia but left it with an awkward government that was only held together by the European Union operated Office of the High Representative. When the United States suddenly pulled out of this office the Europeans were caught of guard and separatists, notably, Milorad Dodik, saw an opportunity for succession.

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SUnknownThe Nubian Shield is the world's next mining destination

Sat, Dec 11, 2021

Nine countries sit atop the Arabian Nubian Shield, a mineral rich rock formation that is the likely worth trillions of dollars in mining revenue. But this is a conflict ridden region controlled by terrorist states and autocratic governments that oppress their inhabitants. But that shows hints of moderation in exchange for the buried wealth.

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SUnknownAlbania and Kosovo Move Towards a Backdoor Union

Thu, Dec 23, 2021

Although one hundred nations recognize Kosovo's independence, Serbia, which claims it, backed by Russia and China do not. That has prompted Kosovo with an ethnic Albanian majority to seek unification with Albania. But since this is the Baltics where calling it complicated is a great understatement.

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SUnknownSweden Joining NATO would Crush Russian power

Sun, Jan 09, 2022

While Sweden has traditionally maintained a position of neutrality in Europen conflicts, Russian aggression at the down of the 21st century has tilted Sweden toward NATO. This is a tremendous blow to Russia as it would leave the Baltic Sea dominated by Western allies on this crucial trade route to Nothern Europe and strategic route to the open ocean.

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SUnknownWhy Germany Won't Help Ukraine

Fri, Feb 18, 2022

For decades Germany has been been increasing it's reliance on Russia for its energy needs ignoring warnings of the consequences of being dependent on Russia. Now Germany is caught between NATO and Russia in how it reacts to Russian aggression in Ukraine.

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SUnknownRussia's War in Ukraine is not Going to Plan

Mon, Mar 07, 2022

Russia and most of the world expected a quick conquest of Ukraine. Two weeks into the conflict Russia still has a long way to go. Shirvan attributes the slow Russian progress to a Russian battle plan for a low cost campaign in terms of resources and civilian casualties. But that could change.

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SUnknownThe weapons Ukraine uses against Russia

Wed, Mar 30, 2022

The Russian forces in the Ukraine were designed to engage comparable NATO forces. But Ukraine is fighting a different war using light, low cost weapons to ambush expensive Russian armor and aircraft.

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SUnknownMeet the Russian Siloviki - Putin's inner circle

Sat, Apr 16, 2022

Vladamir Putin has assembled a powerful inner circle known as the Siloviki who are all beholden to him as dissenters were purged long ago. They are dedicated to making Russia the premier global superpower following the Heartland Theory.

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SUnknownHow Biden Plans to Checkmate China

Sat, Jul 30, 2022

To challenge China's growing international influence the Biden administration is rebuilding two major international cooperation agreements crushed by Donald Trump. One is a coalition or South Asia-Pacific nations. The other is a G7 initiative similar to China's Belt and Road initiative.

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SUnknownIran headed for its next revolution?

Sun, Nov 06, 2022

Iran is a religious dictatorship with a declining standard of living in the midst of a a social revolution that the controlling Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is determined to resist. Thousands have already died in the protests for greater freedom and reform.

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SUnknownCan Ukraine Take Back Crimea?

Mon, Jan 30, 2023

Ukraine seems to have set its sites on regaining Crimea. Loss of Crimea would be a major loss to Russia and Putin in particular so it will be a tough fight that the local population may not support.

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SUnknownHow India Plans to Checkmate China

Tue, Feb 14, 2023

India is implementing what it calls the Necklace of Diamonds, a collection of international relationships that surround China, just has China created the String of Pearls that surrounds India.

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SUnknownAmerica Predicts War with China in 2025

Mon, Feb 27, 2023

To safeguard its trade lines China needs to secure the choke points through the island chains surrounding its coastline. It has begun with efforts to control the South China Sea.

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SUnknownPakistan is dying (and that is a global problem)

Sat, Mar 11, 2023

Pakistan is in the midst of a debt crisis, owing annual repayments that strain its ability to pay them. The impact on the country's standard of living is emboldening extremists which could lead to the country's fragmentation with its nuclear arsenal in uncertain hands.

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SUnknownRussia plans to annex Belarus by 2030

Sat, Apr 29, 2023

Belarus is a key buffer state in central Europe that has long fallen under Russian influence. Alexander Lukashenko and the East-West polarization of Europe has pushed Belarus closer to Russia to the point where Russia has made plans to annex Belarus.

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SUnknownTaiwan has a secret doomsday plan for China

Sun, Jul 30, 2023

In a plan reminiscent of the Soviet-American strategy of Mutual Assured Destruction in the Cold War, Taiwan is preparing the capability to destroy the Three Gorges Dam.

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SUnknownHow America is pushing China out of the internet

Thu, Nov 16, 2023

While satellites tend to make the headlines the work horses of the world's information transmission infrastructure are undersea cables making them crucial assets in geopolitics.

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SUnknownHow the world is preparing for Trump's return

Mon, Apr 01, 2024

Based on their actions in their first terms as president the foreign policy of Trump or Biden will likely vary in style rather than content in a second term, though Trump would likely disengage somewhat politically while playing a bigger role in international trade.

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